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Over the last weeks, I’ve collected a very small number of articles (six so far) everybody should read about Corona.
#StayTheFuckHome
Editorial Summary
Western societies are unprepared for what’s coming, and they underestimate the severity of the crisis. Underestimation has two root causes:
- The power of the exponential function is under-estimated
- The progress of the epidemic is under-estimated because of under-reporting.
As of today, the epidemic should be considered unstoppable. The biggest variable is the extent to which health care services will become overwhelmed. This decides between a death rate of 5% and <1%.
To that end, slowing down the spread of the disease over time is essential: we may still see millions of cases in Germany (for example), but for the health system, it makes a huge difference if we spread a million cases over a month or two or over a year or two.
The most important means to slow down the spread of the disease is to AVOID CONTACT:
- work from home if you possibly can
- avoid gatherings, public transportation, crowded places
any infection you don’t get in contact with, you don’t have to wash off.
The single must-read article:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Essentially, facts, figures, maths, comparisons across regions, across time and across history to estimate the likely progress of the epidemic.
In a nutshell: LOCK DOWN NOW!
In countries that haven’t been hit by SARS a while ago, exponential growth is under-estimated and under-reporting is under-estimated.
Chances are that – despite the low percentage – the number of severe cases annihilates our health systems. Without proper treatment, death rates climb from <1% to ~5%.
If we manage to slow down the epidemic, it may save our health system from collaps which in turn saves lives.
I’ll validate the article as soon as I can.
China, Taiwan etc.:
East Asia has been hit hard by the SARS virus a while ago. They have learned from that, so when Covid-19 came around the corner, they cracked down hard on it.
Western societies should overcome their arrogance and learn from there.
China’s cases of Covid-19 are finally declining. A WHO expert explains why.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china
China’s aggressive measures have slowed the coronavirus. They may not work in other countries
Wie Taiwan den Covid-19-Ausbruch verhinderte – und die WHO davon nichts wissen will (German)
(About the situation in Taiwan – see next for an English language article)
What Taiwan can teach the world on fighting the coronavirus
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/what-taiwan-can-teach-world-fighting-coronavirus-n1153826
Cryptic transmission of novel coronavirus revealed by genomic epidemiology
VERY hard read. But it contains a lot of fine details I haven’t seen elsewhere, like the statistical time between two infections, mutation rates etc.